Democrats Increase Lead Over Republicans in Race for Congress Mood of the Nation Still Favors Challenger Campaigns
-- With mid-term elections now less than four months away, a new Harris Poll finds that Democrats have widened their lead over the Republicans in the race for control of Congress. Results show that if the election for Congress were held today, more than two in five (44%) adults would vote for the Democratic candidate, while about one-third (31%) would vote for the Republican candidate, 17 percent would vote for someone else, and just seven percent are undecided.
These are results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,002 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between July 7 and 10, 2006 by Harris Interactive(R).
Other interesting findings regarding the congressional ballot include: -- With a margin of 13 percentage points, the Democrats' lead over the Republicans has increased from a four-point lead in April and 11-point lead in January. -- The Democrats lead among nearly every demographic subgroup examined. The lone exception is college graduates (37% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 21% other), where they are essentially tied with Republicans. The Republican candidate for Congress also faces difficulty among some traditionally supportive groups such as men (33% Republican, 43% Democrat), married adults (35% Republican, 40% Democrat), and more affluent adults (those with a household income of $60K or more: 37% Republican, 43% Democrat). -- Another issue facing the Republican Party lies with support among conservatives (48% would vote for the Republican candidate, 32% Democratic candidate, and 15% another candidate) and moderates (25% Republican, 50% Democrat, and 18% other), two important segments of their coalition. On the other hand, a Democratic candidate currently draws 68 percent of the liberal vote compared to 13 percent for Republicans and 12 percent for another candidate. -- The Democratic candidate appears to garner slightly stronger support among its base than does the Republican candidate (86% of Democrats would support their candidate vs. 82% of Republicans would support their candidate). -- True to their label, Independents show no real preference with 35 percent supporting the Democrat, 25 percent the Republican, and 30 percent another candidate. Right direction or wrong track
The mood of the nation is essentially unchanged since our last Harris Poll. Currently, 28 percent of U.S. adults think that things are going in the right direction while 61 percent believe the country has gotten off on the wrong track. In June the figures were 28 percent right direction and 64 percent wrong track. Generally speaking, when a majority of adults believe things are on the wrong track they are more likely to consider challengers to incumbent officeholders in elections. Combined with the voter preference for Congress, continued negative mood about the nation could put Republican control of Congress in question.
Presidential ratings
President Bush's job approval rating is only marginally better than it was a month ago. Two-thirds of U.S. adults still have a negative view of the President's job performance (65%) while 34 percent are positive. This compares to 67 percent negative and 33 percent positive in June. A majority of adults across demographic subgroups have a negative opinion of the president's job handling.
The president still has some problems with his base supporters. While his job standing has improved among Republicans, rising from 68 percent in June to 74 percent currently, he is not faring as well among conservatives. Slightly less than half of self-identified conservative adults have a positive impression of President Bush's job handling (46%).
Important issues
Concern about the war in Iraq continues to dominate the issue agenda and is the only issue which shows a significant increase in mentions. Concern about the war now stands at 32 percent, up from 27 percent last month. Mentions of the economy (15%) and immigration (13%) form a second tier of important issues for the government to address. New to the list this month is concern about North Korea (2%), which could be a result of the missile testing by that country just before the survey was conducted.
TABLE 1 PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING (Excludes Not Sure Responses) "How would you rate the overall job President George W. Bush is doing as president - excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?" Base: All Adults TREND Positive* Negative** 2006 July % 34 65 June % 33 67 May % 29 71 April % 35 63 March % 36 64 February % 40 58 January % 43 56 2005 November % 34 65 August % 40 58 June % 45 55 April % 44 56 February % 48 51 2004 November % 50 49 October % 51 49 September % 45 54 August % 48 51 June % 50 49 April % 48 51 February % 51 48 2003 December % 50 49 October % 59 40 August % 57 41 June % 61 36 April % 70 29 February % 52 46 2002 December % 64 35 November % 65 33 October % 64 35 September % 68 30 August % 63 37 July % 62 37 June % 70 28 May % 74 25 April % 75 23 March % 77 22 February % 79 20 January % 79 19 2001 December % 82 17 November % 86 12 October % 88 11 August % 52 43 July % 56 39 June % 50 46 May % 59 35 March % 49 38 February % 56 26 *Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor. TABLE 2 PRESIDENT JOB RATING - BY PARTY ID (Positive* Ratings) "How would you rate the overall job President George W. Bush is doing as president?" Base: All Adults Total Party ID Republican Independent Democrat % % % % July 34 74 23 14 June 33 68 27 14 May 29 67 19 10 *Positive = excellent or pretty good. TABLE 3 PRESIDENT JOB RATING - BY POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY (Positive* Ratings) "How would you rate the overall job President George W. Bush is doing as president?" Base: All Adults Total Political Philosophy Conservative Moderate Liberal % % % % July 34 46 29 21 June 33 55 28 13 May 29 46 24 10 *Positive = excellent or pretty good. TABLE 4 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults TREND Republican Democrat Other+ Undecided*+ July % 31 44 17 7 April % 37 41 15 6 January % 34 43 14 9 *Undecided = No preference/don't know/refused +Volunteered response TABLE 5 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY PARTY ID
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Party ID Republican Independent Democrat % % % % Republican 31 82 25 3 Democrat 44 5 35 86 Other+ 17 7 30 9 +Volunteered response TABLE 6 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY IDEOLOGY
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Political Philosophy Conservative Moderate Liberal % % % % Republican 31 48 25 13 Democrat 44 32 50 68 Other+ 17 15 18 12 +Volunteered response TABLE 7 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY EDUCATION
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Highest Level of Education Some College At Least Some College Graduate Post-Graduate or Less % % % % Republican 31 29 37 37 Democrat 44 47 34 44 Other+ 17 16 21 16 +Volunteered response TABLE 8 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY SEX
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Sex Male Female % % % Republican 31 33 30 Democrat 44 43 46 Other+ 17 17 16 +Volunteered response TABLE 9 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY MARITAL STATUS
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Marital Status Married Single Divorced/ Widowed Separated % % % % % Republican 31 35 28 28 13 Democrat 44 40 51 53 64 Other+ 17 17 15 20 13 +Volunteered response TABLE 10 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS - BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for
the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Base: All Adults Total Household Income Less than $30K $30k to $60k $60k+ % % % % Republican 31 27 23 37 Democrat 44 49 27 43 Other+ 17 16 9 17 +Volunteered response TABLE 11 RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK (Excludes No Opinion, Not Sure and Decline to Answer Responses)
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Base: All Adults TREND Right Direction Wrong Track 2006 July % 28 61 June % 28 64 May % 24 69 April % 27 65 March % 31 60 February % 32 59 January % 33 54 2005 November % 27 68 August % 37 59 June % 38 55 January % 46 48 2004 September % 38 57 June % 35 59 2003 December % 35 57 June % 44 51 2002 December % 36 57 June % 46 48 2001 December % 65 32 June % 43 52 January % 46 39 2000 October % 50 41 June % 40 51 January % 50 38 1999 June % 37 55 March % 47 45 1998 December % 43 51 June % 48 44 1997 December % 39 56 April % 36 55 1996 December % 38 50 June % 29 64 1995 December % 26 62 June % 24 65 1994 December % 29 63 June % 28 65 TABLE 12 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT to address (Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies) "What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?" Base: All Adults '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 Feb April May Jan Feb Aug Dec Dec % % % % % % % % (The) war X X X X X X 12 18 The economy (non-specific) 7 14 8 9 7 5 32 34 Immigration 2 2 2 1 * 1 1 1 Gas and oil prices X X X X X X X X Healthcare (not Medicare) 25 16 10 11 12 15 5 10 Iraq / (Saddam Hussein) * * * * 1 - - 11 Education 10 14 15 14 21 25 12 11 Employment/jobs 10 9 5 3 4 4 7 8 Terrorism X X X X X X 22 17 Social security x X 6 6 24 16 3 2 Energy X X X X X X X X Taxes 12 11 14 16 12 13 6 5 Homeland/domestic security/public safety X X X X X X 8 9 Budget/Government spending X X X X X X X X (Programs for) the poor/ poverty 10 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 Military/defense 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 1 Environment 1 1 3 2 3 3 1 3 Domestic/social issues (non- specific) 4 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 Crime/violence 21 16 19 13 8 10 1 2 Foreign policy (non-specific) 2 3 3 5 4 3 2 4 North Korea X X X X X X X X Medicare X 3 4 5 5 6 1 1 Homelessness - 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 Peace/world peace/nuclear arms 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 2 Inflation X X X X X X X X National security X X X X 2 2 6 3 Same sex rights X X X X X X X X Drugs 3 4 8 6 2 5 2 3 Human/civil/women's rights 1 2 2 1 * 1 1 1 Religion (decline of) 1 * * 1 * 1 2 1 Abortion 3 4 2 2 2 6 1 1 Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief x x x x x X X x Family values (decline of) 2 2 2 1 2 1 * * Judicial/Legal Issues X X X X X X X X Welfare 16 13 14 8 4 2 1 1 Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values X X X X X X X X Ethics in government * * * * * * 1 1 School safety X X X X X X X X Downsizing government X X X X X 1 * X Bush/president x x x x x X X x Medical research X X X X X X X X Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel X X X X X X 2 2 Anthrax/Biological attack - - - - - - 1 1 CIA leak x x x x x X X x FEMA x x x x x X X x Election/Voter reform X X X X X X X 1 Other(1) 7 7 8 19 2 19 3 8 Not sure/refused/no issue 7 7 9 12 16 18 11 10 '03 '04 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '06 '06 Jun Oct Aug Feb Mar April May June July % % % % % % % % % (The) war 8 35 41 27 21 23 28 27 32 The economy (non-specific) 25 28 19 15 15 12 13 14 15 Immigration 2 2 3 5 4 19 16 20 13 Gas and oil prices 1 1 10 2 5 3 14 8 9 Healthcare (not Medicare) 14 18 11 20 16 13 8 12 8 Iraq / (Saddam Hussein) 3 9 6 5 7 7 7 8 8 Education 13 7 8 8 7 10 5 7 8 Employment/jobs 8 10 3 5 8 6 5 7 6 Terrorism 11 7 7 6 6 3 3 4 5 Social security 4 4 10 7 7 5 4 5 4 Energy 1 1 4 4 3 3 x 4 4 Taxes 11 8 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 Homeland/domestic security/public safety 3 6 2 3 4 3 3 2 3 Budget/Government spending X X X X X X 3 5 2 (Programs for) the poor/ poverty 3 * 4 5 4 4 3 4 2 Military/defense 5 3 1 3 3 2 1 4 2 Environment 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 Domestic/social issues (non- specific) 1 2 2 * 2 * 1 3 2 Crime/violence 3 1 3 1 1 3 2 2 2 Foreign policy (non-specific) 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 2 2 North Korea X X X X X X X X 2 Medicare 4 3 2 5 3 3 2 1 2 Homelessness 1 * 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 Peace/world peace/nuclear arms 3 * 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 Inflation X X 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 National security 6 5 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 Same sex rights X 1 1 * * 1 * 2 1 Drugs 3 * 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 Human/civil/women's rights * 1 1 1 * 1 2 1 1 Religion (decline of) 1 1 * * 1 1 2 1 1 Abortion 1 4 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief x X x 1 2 * * 1 1 Family values (decline of) 1 1 1 * * * * 1 1 Judicial/Legal Issues X * 2 1 1 * * 1 1 Welfare 3 * 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values X 2 2 * 1 1 * 1 1 Ethics in government 1 1 1 1 X 1 2 1 * School safety 2 * 1 1 * * * 1 * Downsizing government X 1 * * 1 1 * 1 * Bush/president x X x 1 1 * 1 X * Medical research 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 * * Middle East peace process between Palestinians and Israel 2 * 1 1 1 2 1 * * Anthrax/Biological attack 1 X * X * * * * * CIA leak x X x X * 1 * * * FEMA x X x * X * * * * Election/Voter reform 1 * 1 1 * * * * * Other(1) 8 8 1 5 4 4 6 6 3 Not sure/refused/no issue 12 9 8 6 8 4 4 6 8 * = Less than 0.5% X = Not mentioned as specific issue (1) Including government/politics (nonspecific), personal finance, housing, Supreme Court, air travel safety, Democrats, Republicans, corporate scandals/fraud, and programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security) Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between July 7 and 10, 2006 among a nationwide cross section of 1,002 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, and region were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 1,002 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J28469 QA1, QA2, QA3, QA5 Harris Interactive Inc. 07/06 The Harris Poll(R) 57, July 20, 2006
By Bill Dalbec, Vice President, Public Affairs and Policy Research Group, Harris Interactive(R)
About Harris Interactive
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